2014 Oscar Race: My Final Picks

It’s Oscar night, and this is the last of my Oscar race posts (the two of you who read this blog are probably thrilled). I’ve spend the last month or so breaking down what I consider each of the eight major races in advance of tonight’s award announcements (just tell me who won – they can keep the ceremony and the rest of it in my view). For those of you who’d like to review these (and I can’t imagine who would), you can click the links at the top of each category – if there’s no link, I didn’t cover that category. Simple enough, right?

Anyway, let’s get to it – the full list of nominees, and my prediction as to who will win. Some of these categories I didn’t complete viewing, so I’ll sub in popular opinion at times.

BEST PICTURE
Predicted Oscar Winner: 12 Years a Slave
Nominees:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Predicted Oscar Winner: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer’s Club)
Nominees:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Predicted Oscar Winner: Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Nominees:
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Predicted Oscar Winner: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Nominees:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Predicted Oscar Winner: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Nominees:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Oscar Winner: Frozen
Nominees:
The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine Belson)
Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri)
Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner)
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)
The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Oscar Winner: Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Nominees:
The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Oscar Winner: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Nominees:
American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
The Invisible Woman (Michael O’Connor)
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)

BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Oscar Winner: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Nominees:
American Hustle (David O. Russell)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Oscar Winner: The Act of Killing
Nominees:
The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
Cutie and the Boxer (Zachary Heinzerling, Lydia Dean Pilcher)
Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley, Jeremy Scahill)
The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer)
20 Feet from Stardom (Nominees to be determined)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Predicted Oscar Winner: The Lady in Number 6
Nominees:
CaveDigger (Jeffrey Karoff)
Facing Fear (Jason Cohen)
Karama Has No Walls (Sara Ishaq)
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed)
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall (Edgar Barens)

BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Oscar Winner: Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger, Gravity
Nominees:
American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten)
Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy, Martin Pensa)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger)
12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Predicted Oscar Winner: The Great Beauty
Nominees:
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Oscar Winner: Adruitha Lee & Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Nominees:
Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews)
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)
The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Oscar Winner: Stephen Price, Gravity
Nominees:
The Book Thief (John Williams)
Gravity (Steven Price)
Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Oscar Winner: “Let It Go” (Frozen)
Nominees:
“Alone Yet Not Alone” (Alone Yet Not Alone)
“Happy” (Despicable Me 2)
“Let It Go” (Frozen)
“The Moon Song” (Her)
“Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Oscar Winner: Adam Stockhausen & Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Nominees:
American Hustle (Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler)
Gravity (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woollard)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn)
Her (K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena)
12 Years a Slave (Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Predicted Oscar Winner: Get a Horse!
Nominees:
Feral (Daniel Sousa, Dan Golden)
Get a Horse! (Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim)
Mr. Hublot (Laurent Witz, Alexandre Espigares)
Possessions (Shuhei Morita)
Room on the Broom (Max Lang, Jan Lachauer)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Predicted Oscar Winner: The Voorman Problem
Nominees:
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me) (Esteban Crespo)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything) (Xavier Legrand, Alexandre Gavras)
Helium (Anders Walter, Kim Magnusson)
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?) (Selma Vilhunen, Kirsikka Saari)
The Voorman Problem (Mark Gill, Baldwin Li)

BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Oscar Winner: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Nominees:
All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker, Richard Hymns)
Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney)
Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge, Chris Ward)
Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman)

BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Oscar Winner: Gravity (see individuals below)
Nominees:
Captain Phillips (Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, Chris Munro)
Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Tony Johnson)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland)
Lone Survivor (Andy Koyama, Beau Borders, David Brownlow)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Oscar Winner: Gravity (see individuals below)
Nominees:
Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, Eric Reynolds)
Iron Man 3 (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash, Dan Sudick)
The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams, John Frazier)
Star Trek Into Darkness (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann, Burt Dalton)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Oscar Winner: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Nominees:
Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Oscar Winner: Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russell, American Hustle
Nominees:
American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)